Weather forecasting and its impact on farms and food security

Let’s talk a little bit about weather forecasting, modeling, and data. 

Weather forecasting is not a black and white science.  We have incredible technology that has improved forecasting over the last two decades, especially within the last 11 years as computer models have become much more advanced and the use of weather balloons much more prolific.  You may have heard of global models like the Euro, GFS (that's the one our own National Weather Service -NWS- puts out), and the GEM (also known as the Canadian model).  These models take real-time data from various instruments and weather stations throughout the world and run this data into computer models. They each have strengths and weaknesses.  Then there are more localized models like the NAM and HRRR which are more in-the-moment kind of weather tools (and radar) that are hyper-localized to various regions.  The GFS, NAM, and HRRR are all public-service projects funded by the federal government to serve the public interest.

 These models all collaborate to help meteorologists make their predictions, utilizing various inputs and possibilities for variation and sometimes overlapping each other to get a blended model (a general consensus of what could happen based on all the data and modeling).  Meteorologists use these tools to inform their own predictions, where we see human judgement based on experience and local nuance... because we can't rely on computers alone (just try using ChatGPT, you'll see how wildly wrong it is much of the time!).  So that's the modeling side: data runs through computer programs and is interpreted by scientists trained to understand how they all work.  

Then there is the data side- one very important piece to collecting atmospheric data is the widespread use of weather balloons, which have been in use for over a century now.  Weather balloons are key when it comes to collecting a more accurate snapshot of the atmosphere because of the way these balloons travel up into it, like a giant slice of data from every layer of weather above us.  Spread out over the country, these balloons give us a deep dive into the real-time goings on that inform longer term (7-10 day) forecasts.  Even with all that data, weather forecasting was never perfect but at least it gave us the ability to get a decent picture of patterns and possible outcomes that would paint a fairly accurate picture we could make a decision on.    

Well, that system is no longer working the way it did prior to Feb. 2025. 

What happened? 

Well, the federal government made massive cuts to the federal workforce through DOGE and terminated about 1,300 NOAA and NWS employees (over 10% of the staff)- half of which were front-line forecasters, meteorologists, and technicians. So, basically slimming down the staff that are trained to use the instruments that provide the data, the ones who collect the data, and the ones who interpret it.   In addition to these cuts, they eliminated 5 weather balloon stations and reduced the frequency of the balloons at other stations.  The most significant, perhaps, is the elimination and closure of the Kotzebue Alaska Weather Station- a station that was pivotal for long term forecasts due to its far western location in the US.    These cuts have deep public safety and economic impacts to say the least.    

Why is this a big deal for us farmers? 

Well, we are already dealing with weather patterns that have become much more volatile and unpredictable.   All available data that can help inform our decisions can at minimum help us make better decisions in the face of a rapidly changing world.  We can't necessarily change what is happening in the big picture of climate breakdown and ecological collapse, but we can find ways to adapt and make decisions that might save a crop from total loss.  

Saturday's storm and low temps were not in the forecast last week until Thursday. Thursday!!!  Only 3 days ahead of a major weather event for all farmers in New England.  Maybe we would have waited to plant our summer squash.  Maybe we would have planted it where we already have infrastructure in place to cover it more easily, or an area that has a better windbreak.   Maybe we could have done a handful of different things in order to prepare.  But with 3 days' notice, all we (and many other farmers) could do, was do our best to protect what we had planted.   We have friends who put up last minute “mini tunnels” with row cover and heaters to protect their tomato crop…  Who kept sprinklers going all night on other crops they couldn’t cover (constant moving water can prevent the frost from settling).  Other larger farms, well there’s not much they can do when we’re talking about acres upon acres of tender crops.  There just isn’t enough time or ability to manage that beyond hope and prayers. 

Questions we must ask:

With these DOGE cuts that are impacting your food system, now might be the time to ask yourself, what is it that you want your government to do? What should our taxes pay for?  What is truly in the interest of service to the American public and what is not? I don’t know about you, but I think it is more than reasonable to expect our taxes to pay for things that truly matter to the health and wellbeing of our country and all of the people who live in it.   And weather forecasting protects lives, protects property, and helps us farmers keep growing and producing food.  Bad weather can put us out of business, but so can bad forecasting.  Seems like better weather forecasting tools and experts would be a good investment, if you ask me.  What do you think?

NOTE: picture shown is a rainbow in Hotchkiss Grove, Branford, CT (the neighborhood Courtney grew up in).